0. Background: See link Modernization
- Technology & Investment/Finance (2 wheels of industrialization) from Europe and British Empire -> US -> WTO (World Trade & International Division of Labor)
- Oil & Currency (USD/CNY?)
- Since 2019, how pandemic diseases (e.g. COVID-19) will change the world? Border closed -> Regional Segregation -> Secure resources (medical, medicines, vaccines, automation & 5G/AIs..) -> New Supply Chain/Logistics
- Since 2022 Feb-24, Russia-Ukrian war also causes heavy inflation (gas, grains..)
- US FED raises interest rate in June, July, ..of 2022.
- Slow down or Recession?
1. US International Strategies
- US against Russia, Japan, Islam, China
- US allies: Europe, The Five Eyes, Japan.. (Indo-Pacific)
- Let Labor-intensive industries go to: Mexico, Southeast, India..
- Keep knowledge-intensive industries in US and promote USD as a word-trade currency (open markets, trade deficit, technology & industry & education, entertainments, culture..).
- Open China Market (WTO, trade negotiations..) <= Game Theory playing =>> New Cold War between US vs.China allies (redistributing trade deficit to other friendly countries)
- West (US/EU) against East (Russia/China)?
2. China International Strategies
- Internal: Xi learned from Mao and his experience during Cultural Revolution (1966~1976). He set concentration camps for Xinjiang dissidents and sent in obedient people and armies to rule them. Now, I speculate he'll do similar things to Hong-Kong and Taiwan. Less blood inside and less opposition outside. Take control over these regions slowly and quietly.
- International: Xi learned from US. Expand trade and economic influence and promote RMB as a word-trade currency (The Belt and Road).
- Xi keeps his ruling (autocracy of one party mixing Ching Dynasty + Mao ruling) without the limit of 10 years. It will delay China's further economic development in decades until his death like Mao.
- Xi's main character looks like the Hoarding orientation which positive & negative aspects are as the following descriptions in Erich Fromm's book "Man for Himself" published in 1947.
Positive Aspect | Negative Aspect |
practical | unimaginative |
economical | stingy |
careful | suspicious |
reserved | cold |
patient | lethargic |
cautious | anxious |
steadfast, tenacious | stubborn |
imperturbable | indolent |
composed under stress | inert |
orderly | pedantic |
methodical | obsessional |
loyal | possessive |
2.1 Hong Kong People's Awakening
- 1949 Sino-British Joint Declaration: HK would be returned to China in 1997 and kept autonomous for 50 years until 2047 (One country, two systems).
- Hong Kong played a role for attracting foreign investments and kept booming.
- 2019 Hong Kong People found CCP's ruling was getting in because of Extradition Law Amendment Bill. They were awakened and fighting for autonomy.
- Tibet and Xinjiang are the examples for them. CCP is the most wicked organization in the world like Nazi.
2.2 Taiwan International strategies
- Cooperate with US as one ally (President Tsai Ing-wen).
- Expand trade and economic influence (a bridge between developed countries and developing countries),
- Competitive Industries: Semiconductor, ICT, 5G/AIot, ..
- Strategic Industries for future development in Asia-Pacific: Medical & Health Care Center (Biotechnology), Financial Center & Services (take part of HK's funding and experts), Aerospace Technology, Chinese Cultural creation (Pop music, movies..), Agriculture & Ecology Center, ..
Note: Center is an application & data center (a platform, a network & a supply chain). It doesn't have to be big or tangible.
3. Russia International Strategies
- Putin (autocracy of one party and his charisma) exploits Russia's natural resources (Oil, gas, metals,,) and military forces to gain political and economical advantages.
- Putin's main character looks like the Exploitative orientation which positive & negative aspects are as the following descriptions in Erich Fromm's book "Man for Himself" published in 1947.
Positive Aspect | Negative Aspect |
active | exploitative |
able to take initiative | aggressive |
Able to make claims | egocentric |
proud | conceited |
impulsive | rash |
self-confident | arrogant |
captivating | seducing |
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4. Demography
- Aging society with fewer children
- M-Form Society
- Movement of People (tourists, immigrants- capital, skilled, young..): See link Demography (Video in Chinese subtitle)
5. New Economies
- ICT: Computer & 3C 2/2.5G -> Cell Phones 3/4G -> Big Data & AI & 5G
- Digital contents (TV/Movies, Vlog, live broadcasting..)
- ID & Security check
- The Experience Economy: experience, sensational, entertainment, culture & culture differences, art, theme facilities, events, AR/VR, personal..
- Movement of People (tourists, immigrants- capital, skilled, young..)
- Medical & Medicare Economy (because of aging society and unhealthy foods & lives)
- Pandemic diseases (e.g. COVID-19) will destroy, re-build world economy, re-organize UN/WTO/WHO, and accelerate the applications of automation & AIs.
References
- Lecture "Service Sector: Its Essentials, Value Creation and Business Models" (by Prof. Chiang, Chiung-Tsung, College of Management, National Taiwan University)
- See also the following link: Basic 1. Types of Human Characters extracted from Erich Fromm's book " Man for Himself" (1947);
