Company 06. How to cross the big chasm of a new product life cycle? (updated on 2020.1.22)

Product Life Cycle

1. An ideal curve of a new product life cycle is like the following one:

2. How people to adopt a new product is like this one:

3. In real life, we usually get this one (a big chasm and tornadoes):

4. How to cross the big chasm?

For example, R&D engineers develops a smart and powerful App with a lot of functions but only few early adopters are interested to use it. We need AI figures with Exploitative or Marketing Orientation to lure people how to do and what they can be benefited.

After newbies become veterans with Exploitative or Marketing Orientation, they'll show off what they can do and teach other newbies with Receptive or Hoarding Orientation through social mediums, blog..). Hoarding Orientation people will be the majority and resist to adopt the other similar products (a stable cash cow).

4.1 Early Market
Traditionally, we use advertisement or low price to prompt and lure customers. That is effective for commodity products because customers have experience of similar products. You can adopt Marketing Orientation AI to do the same jobs to extend the effect with less cost. For innovation products, customer lack experience to use them before so hesitate. You can adopt  Exploitative Orientation AI to show how to do and what they can be benefited to arouse customers' interests. For example, a hero saves you when you have a problem or a awkward situation.

 

4.2 Mainstream Market
During this stage, most customer know this new innovation and develop their own habit and preference, They want to keep these routines and repeat them next time. You can adopt Hoarding Orientation AI or specialist AI to help them to repeat some specific processes or doing some extra works (e.g. calculation or translation).

 

4.3 late Market
During this stage, companies usually ask to lower costs and maybe cut some services rare used. You can keep AI services only and cut staff services to save the costs.

See also,

Product 04- AI Device- Smart Speaker (as a Platform of all Services,

Company 05. Platform Strategy

References

1. Lecture "Innovation: Technology, Market and Business Models" (Prof. Chiang, Chiung-Tsung, College of Management, National Taiwan University)

Company 05. Platform Strategy

iPod Strategy

1. Start with a simple and easy device or application.
2. Focus on quantity growth to make it popular. (Book: Catalyst Code)
3. Build a platform for Apps and contents (complementary supplier side and user side)
4. Have social and mobile features to make it growing faster.
5. Provide high-end devices (e,g, iPhones)
6. Add more functions and services on it.
7. Keep it upward spiraling..

Smart Speaker Strategy

1. See link Product 04- AI Device- Smart Speaker as a personal assistant and also a platform to provide services and to control electrical appliances.

2. Design and produce (or outsource) Product 05- AI Device- Electrical Appliance but keep control over design (patents) and core components.

3. Extend Smart Speaker as a Home Center Device to have more functions.

4.Build an Industry Ally to have more suppliers to join and design more appliances together..

Other examples:

Product 06- AR Facility- AR Hospital for People of All Ages

References

1. Lecture "Network Industries and Platform Strategy" (by Prof.  Chiang, Chiung-Tsung, College of Management, National Taiwan University)

0. World Modernization

Picture source: https://www.amazon.com/Exploration-Primary-Sources-World-History/dp/1502618141

World Modernization

0. Dialectical Thinking & Discussing...

.. Parliamentary system/Democracy against Autocracy & Monocracy (through heredity) ..

1. Renaissance from Europe

2. The Enlightenment: Age of Exploration, Age of Enlightenment & Age of Reason..

3. Capitalism Vs. Socialism Vs. Communism

4. Technology & Investment/Finance (2 wheels of industrialization) from Europe and British Empire -> US -> UN/WTO (International Division of Labor & World Trade) 

5. Industrial Revolution: Power Engine from human to coal/oil/uranium/solar/natural -> Electricity & Electronics -> Computer & 3C 2/2.5G -> Cell Phones 3/4G -> Big Data & AI & 5/6G

6. AI -> new ethics of societies (need to be established among human & AI) & Safety (Human Supervision)

7. Pandemic (COVID-19) will re-organize UN and WHO.

• Image Source: How is AI helping in a more robust User Experience?

Russia Modernization

• 1918 俄羅斯蘇維埃聯邦社會主義共和國 (Rossiyskáya Sovetskáya Federatívnaya Socialistícheskaya Respublika)，簡稱蘇俄，
• 1922 蘇維埃社會主義共和國聯盟，簡稱蘇聯。
• 1991 蘇聯解體
• 1999~ 普丁獲得時任俄羅斯總統葉爾欽任命為總理..
• 1999 第二次車臣戰爭 
• 2014~2022 俄烏戰爭: 頓巴斯戰爭、克里米亞戰爭..
  
  

China Modernization

• 1900 Eight-Nation Alliance (八國聯軍，維新:船堅炮利就夠了嗎?)
• 1919 May Fourth Movement (五四運動，全盤西化還是中西學體用爭論?)
• 1949 Mao and Communist Party started to rule China (Industrialization- Join WTO)
• 2012~2022~ Xi started to rule China..

Next

• 2022 俄烏戰爭 -> West (US/Eu) against East (Russia/China)?

0. International Political Economics & New Economies (updated on 2022.June.22)

0. Background: See link Modernization

• Technology & Investment/Finance (2 wheels of industrialization) from Europe and British Empire -> US -> WTO (World Trade & International Division of Labor) 
• Oil & Currency (USD/CNY?)
• Since 2019, how pandemic diseases (e.g. COVID-19) will change the world? Border closed -> Regional Segregation -> Secure resources (medical, medicines, vaccines, automation & 5G/AIs..) -> New Supply Chain/Logistics 
•  Since 2022 Feb-24, Russia-Ukrian war also causes heavy inflation (gas, grains..)
• US FED raises interest rate in June, July, ..of 2022.
• Slow down or Recession?
  

1. US International Strategies

• US against Russia, Japan, Islam, China
• US allies: Europe, The Five Eyes, Japan.. (Indo-Pacific)
• Let Labor-intensive industries go to: Mexico, Southeast, India..
• Keep knowledge-intensive industries in US and promote USD as a word-trade currency (open markets, trade deficit, technology & industry & education, entertainments, culture..).
• Open China Market (WTO, trade negotiations..) <= Game Theory playing =>> New Cold War between US vs.China allies (redistributing trade deficit to other friendly countries)
• West (US/EU) against East (Russia/China)?

2. China International Strategies

• Internal: Xi learned from Mao and his experience during Cultural Revolution (1966~1976). He set concentration camps for Xinjiang dissidents and sent in obedient people and armies to rule them. Now, I speculate he'll do similar things to Hong-Kong and Taiwan. Less blood inside and less opposition outside. Take control over these regions slowly and quietly.

• International: Xi learned from US. Expand trade and economic influence and promote RMB as a word-trade currency (The Belt and Road). 

• Xi keeps his ruling (autocracy of one party mixing Ching Dynasty + Mao ruling) without the limit of 10 years. It will delay China's further economic development in decades until his death like Mao.

• Xi's main character looks like the Hoarding orientation which positive & negative aspects are as the following descriptions in Erich Fromm's book "Man for Himself" published in 1947. 

Positive Aspect	Negative Aspect
practical	unimaginative
economical	stingy
careful	suspicious
reserved	cold
patient	lethargic
cautious	anxious
steadfast, tenacious	stubborn
imperturbable	indolent
composed under stress	inert
orderly	pedantic
methodical	obsessional
loyal	possessive

2.1 Hong Kong People's Awakening

• 1949 Sino-British Joint Declaration: HK would be returned to China in 1997 and kept autonomous for 50 years until 2047 (One country, two systems).
• Hong Kong played a role for attracting foreign investments and kept booming.
• 2019 Hong Kong People found CCP's ruling was getting in because of Extradition Law Amendment Bill. They were awakened and fighting for autonomy.
• Tibet and Xinjiang are the examples for them. CCP is the most wicked organization in the world like Nazi.

2.2 Taiwan International strategies

• Cooperate with US as one ally (President Tsai Ing-wen).
• Expand trade and economic influence (a bridge between developed countries and developing countries),
• Competitive Industries: Semiconductor, ICT, 5G/AIot, ..
• Strategic Industries for future development in Asia-Pacific: Medical & Health Care Center (Biotechnology), Financial Center & Services (take part of HK's funding and experts), Aerospace Technology, Chinese Cultural creation (Pop music, movies..), Agriculture & Ecology Center, ..

Note: Center is an application & data center (a platform, a network & a supply chain). It doesn't have to be big or tangible. 

3. Russia International Strategies

• Putin (autocracy of one party and his charisma) exploits Russia's natural resources (Oil, gas, metals,,) and military forces to gain political and economical advantages.
• Putin's main character looks like the Exploitative orientation which positive & negative aspects are as the following descriptions in Erich Fromm's book "Man for Himself" published in 1947. 

Positive Aspect	Negative Aspect
active	exploitative
able to take initiative	aggressive
Able to make claims	egocentric
proud	conceited
impulsive	rash
self-confident	arrogant
captivating	seducing

4. Demography

• Aging society with fewer children 
• M-Form Society
• Movement of People (tourists, immigrants- capital, skilled, young..): See link Demography (Video in Chinese subtitle)

5. New Economies

• ICT: Computer & 3C 2/2.5G -> Cell Phones 3/4G -> Big Data & AI & 5G
• Digital contents (TV/Movies, Vlog, live broadcasting..)
• ID & Security check
• The Experience Economy: experience, sensational, entertainment, culture & culture differences, art, theme facilities, events, AR/VR, personal..
• Movement of People (tourists, immigrants- capital, skilled, young..)
• Medical & Medicare Economy (because of aging society and unhealthy foods & lives)
• Pandemic diseases (e.g. COVID-19) will destroy, re-build world economy, re-organize UN/WTO/WHO, and accelerate the applications of automation & AIs.

References

1. Lecture "Service Sector: Its Essentials, Value Creation and Business Models" (by Prof.  Chiang, Chiung-Tsung, College of Management, National Taiwan University)
2. See also the following link: Basic 1. Types of Human Characters extracted from Erich Fromm's book " Man for Himself" (1947);

Vision 3. AR Hospital for People of All Ages

Customers & Their Main Targets 

• 0~12 (year-old):  Physical & Senses Growth
• 12~18:  Physical & Senses Growth & Development (Sports & Interests)
• 18~30: Work & Life Style, Increase Muscle & Fat Loss
• 30~40: Work & Life Style, Pressure & Metabolism
• 40~60: Early Stage & Care of the 3-Highs (Blood Sugar/Lipid/Pressure) & Ageing 
• >60: Later Stage & Care of the 3-Highs (Blood Sugar/Lipid/Pressure) & Ageing & Dying
• To break information asymmetry situation: to know more health information about him/herself -> to gain expert suggestions -> to search right/available solution -> execution & tracking 

Key Factors

1. Customer sets a health target -> Personal Physical Scan & State, Profile (habits, family, culture, life style, work, sickness history..)
2. AI: front-end (AR hospital, consulting), back-end (big data, epidemic,  suggestion of hospital & doctor)
3. Treatment & Corrction (contracted suppliers, chain stores or franchise?)
4. Multi-lingual Support (for medicare & consulting services)
5. Medicare System/Insurance/Business building and developing
6. Build a platform for customers & examinations, clinics, hospitals.

Product 06. AR Facility- AR Hospital for People of All Ages (updated on 2020.5.22)

1. Customers & Main Targets 

• 0~12 (year-old):  Physical & Senses Growth
• 12~18:  Physical & Senses Growth & Development (Sports & Interests)
• 18~30: Work & Life Style, Increase Muscle & Fat Loss
• 30~40: Work & Life Style, Pressure & Metabolism
• 40~60: Early Stage & Care of the 3-Highs (Blood Sugar/Lipid/Pressure) & Ageing 
• >60: Later Stage & Care of the 3-Highs (Blood Sugar/Lipid/Pressure) & Ageing & Dying
• Flu & Epidemic: Vaccination, Traveling History
• Content: Food & Nutrition, Personal habits, Medical &  Medicare
• To break information asymmetry situation: To know more health information about yourself -> to gain expert suggestions -> to search right/available solution -> execution & tracking

2. Function block & Road-map of the system

• ID (patients, doctors, pharmacists, employees, treatment or correction.., e.g. Zebra- Business Solutions) & Permissions
• Registration 
• Character AIs among Social Networks
• News & Medium to attract free users as more as possible
• Map of Medical facilities (Clinics, Hospitals..)
• Health Examinations according to customer's age and target to get his/her own Health Classification
• Symptom Cause & Analyses
• Consulting services: Medical treatments (according to hospital system) & Diet suggestions 
• Key-point Examinations and tracking (according to personal targets)  per a period of time..
• Map of Food & Nutrition (Stores)
• Map of Exercises (Locations)
• 
  

3. AI role-playing

• User (with Receiving character) vs. helper AI (with Exploiting character): function touring
• User (with Exploiting character) vs. Secretary AI (with Receiving character): voice commanding or clicking to jump to a function he wants to execute.
• User (with Hoarding character) vs. care-giver  AI (with Hoarding character): daily care 
• Promotion or sales representative (with Marketing character): Examinations, events, warning (of flu, epidemic, disease warning)
• ..

• 3.1  Helper AI (with Exploiting character): Register, Nurse, Doctor..

• 3.2  Secretary AI (with Receiving character): to keep your personal profile and states
   

• 3.3  Adviser AI (with Hoarding character): Examinations & Diagnosis, personal doctor, family doctor, specialists, ..

• 3.4  Sales AI (with Marketing character): Examinations or Event representative

 

• 3.5  Treatment Planner AI (with Hoarding character): The AI which makes a plan for you to do some specific treatment, food/nutrition, sight-seeing.. in Taiwan.

4. Related Industry Cluster

• 4.1 Competitive Industry in Taiwan: Taiwan has National Health Insurance for every people so it has 23-million people as a base of customers, higher cost-performance of medical & medicare services, most intelligent medical experts & school students, hardworking professional nurses than other countries. This platform has the potential to be developed into a competitive industry in Taiwan and attract other country's customers.
• 4.2 Medical Cluster: Northern Taiwan with many Medical Centers or Teaching Hospitals
• 4.3 Medicare Cluster: Suburban districts around Medical Centers or Teaching Hospitals
• 
  

5. Free & Charge

• 5.1 Free to attract more users in short time to become dominant (Platform Strategy): Basic APP functions, Helper AI, Secretary AI..
• 5.2 Charge to get income: Adviser AI (from Consumers), Sales AI (from Business customers), consulting, 

6. Finance & Funding

• 6.1 NPG (Nonprofit Organization) for medical & medicare services because it may adopt government resources and research data. Its goal is to serve more people rather than profit more but it has to balance profit and loss under finance plans.
• 6.2 Separate IT services as a private corporation. It can serve other business as a new UI (banking, consumer electronics, hotel booking & sightseeing, ..). It may need funding from public market to grow fast to become dominated in the field (network business, see Company 05. Platform Strategy). 

See Also

• Basic 5. AI with Human Characters

• Basic 1. Types of Human Characters extracted from Erich Fromm's book " Man for Himself" (1947);

• Company 05. Platform Strategy,

• Company 06. How to cross the big chasm of a new product life cycle?